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Dr. Steve Lyons
Tropical Weather Expert - The Weather Channel
Steve's expertise is in Tropical and Marine Meteorology. He has participated in more than 50 national and international conferences and provided World Meteorological Organization training courses in marine meteorology, tropical meteorology and ocean wave forecasting. Full Bio >>
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Questions and Answers
Want to know more? Read the questions and responses below from Dr. Steve Lyons.
Q: I have a passion for the weather, particularly hurricanes and I would like to study atmospheric science in college. What college you think has the best program for atmospheric science and what will it take to become a hurricane expert like you instead of simply a regular meteorologist? - Stefan, 11th Grader from New Jersey
A: There are many great universities that offer degrees in meteorology and some have special interest in tropical weather. I have always been bias toward the University of Hawaii (my alma mater) as it has a great tropical weather program and that includes hurricanes. Also it is located in the tropics and there is no better way to learn about them than to live in them. I have spend more than 30 years forecasting hurricanes and experience is one of the best tools for being good at forecasting them. I also have done a lot of research on tropical weather and that research has allowed me to understand tropical weather better. For example I have developed my own hurricane wave & erosion model, hurricane rainfall model, hurricane water rise model.
So I guess the ingredients can be boiled down into 4 :
1) Ph.D. in atmospheric science with a slant on tropical weather
2) Much experience forecasting and track hurricanes & typhoons
3) Doing research on them and their potential impacts
4) Love of atmospheric science
Q: What are your new predictions for the Atlantic for the rest of the 2006 season. I am meaning named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes. - 11th Grader
A: TWC does not make seasonal tropical cyclone (storms and hurricanes) predictions. However it looks like we are not going to have more than an average end to the season (1H 2 TS) and it could be we end the season early with less than the average.
Q: I live in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. I am a Louisiana native, and I have lived in south Louisiana for 27 years now. I have always been fascinated by weather, and remember my interest in hurricanes Betsy, Camille, etc. in the 60's when I lived in northwest Louisiana, where I was away from any danger. However, last year's double-whammy by Katrina and Rita has me truly concerned about living in this area, for the first time in my 27 years here. I even "weathered" Andrew with my wife and children in 1992, with a little pre-strike fear, but got through it just fine and thought "no problem". And I actually spent the night that Georges hit in 1998, in the French Quarter in New Orleans -- not even knowing that the authorities were closing down interstates and other major highways!!!! Again, no biggie. But post-Katrina/Rita, I no longer feel that way.
I hear, from the news media, as well as from a friend of mine who has studied weather & climate since he was pre-teen and now works for NWS, that we are in the beginning of a cycle -- ten years, is it??
I am truly concerned about the 2006 season. What do you think are the chances of another direct hit on Louisiana by a major hurricane _this year_? We are still reeling from last year, and personally, I don't believe we can endure another direct hit in such short time. I am reminded of poor Florida which has gone through so many storms in the last couple of years... I just don't believe Louisiana is in position at this time, to sustain another major storm.
I am truly concerned. - Sonny
A: Unfortunately no one can tell you with any scientific basis whether New Orleans will be hit this year, and if they are what strength the storm or hurricane would be. The best I can tell you is that New Orleans has always been an accident waiting to happen when it comes to hurricanes and flooding rains. This year is no different that in past years (except there is now less to damage then there was last year).
Yes we are in what hurricane experts call “an active era” for Atlantic hurricanes. No one knows exactly how long this “era” will last, but in the past they have lasted 10-20 years and this one started in 1995…so we are into the 11th active year. Within this active era we can see inactive years, especially if an El Nino is ongoing, there is NOT one this year.
We expect an above average (more than 10) named storms this hurricane season. Most seasonal forecasters are predicting about 15 plus or minus a few. We are NOT expecting 27 named storms as we had last year. BUT the only ones that matter to you are the ones that hit the U.S. (especially New Orleans) and no one knows the answer to that.
So The Weather Channel’s view on the whole outlook is be prepared equally well every year, it only takes 1, not 27 in your backyard. Make sure you have a hurricane supply kit and make sure you have your own evacuation plans (they should include the possibility of at least 3 routes out just in case one or more become blocked) and 3 places to go (in case 2 of them are already full or unavailable).
You hold safety in your own hands, evacuation immediately when called to do so by local Emergency Management officials. As for your home and property, plastic saves much from water, moves things to the highest levels in your home and take with you those photos and other things you cannot replace, that money cannot buy.
The responses and opinions contained herein are those of the respective authors and do not necessarily relect the views or opinions of Power to Learn or Cablevision.
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